What can the numbers tell us and why the eye test still very much matters. Looking into the upcoming draft with a lot of data behind us.
As the NBA draft quickly approaches coaches, scouts, and data guys alike will be trying to wrap their heads around who will be the next “steal” and who is going to be over valued. I tried my hand to wrangle some (a lot) of data together to see what insights I might be able to bring. What I found – the eye test still very much matters. While data does tell a story, and might be able to provide some insight, it definitely comes up short when finding consistent projections.
The process: I collected data from over 2,000 college players starting with the 2018-2019 season. Using various data points that I felt were the most important, I was able to rank players against each-other 1 through 2,000ish. Using the rankings against each other I was able to weight and total their overall scores. Using the total scores, I was able to gain insights into the top players of each draft. The results are below. Each category was given a different weight depending on how I felt it was important. The results are below.
Note: each year is the same equation.
2018-2019 Insights
| Player | Team | TOTAL RANK | USAGE WEIGHT | APG WEIGHT | Win Share Weight | STRENGTH WEIGHT | PER WEIGHT | 3% WEIGHT | eFG% WEIGHT | PPG WEIGHT | RBPG WEIGHT | DRTG WEIGHT | TOTAL |
| Zion Williamson | DUKE | 1 | 6900 | 6592 | 4,846.00 | 7,655.00 | 7275 | 1,875 | 6037.5 | 36150 | 5945 | 69.12 | 83344.6200 |
| Rui Hachimura | GU | 2 | 6864 | 4800 | 4,830.00 | 8,212.50 | 7209 | 3,312 | 5635 | 35565 | 5330 | 72.8 | 81830.3000 |
| R.J. Barrett | DUKE | 3 | 7203 | 9204 | 4,802.00 | 7,655.00 | 6846 | 1,298 | 2867.5 | 36150 | 5692.5 | 76 | 81793.5000 |
| Grant Williams | UT | 4 | 6498 | 8396 | 4,840.00 | 6,560.00 | 7245 | 1,632 | 5220 | 35280 | 5655 | 76.56 | 81402.5600 |
| Ja Morant | MSU | 5 | 7233 | 9700 | 4,844.00 | 3,457.50 | 7251 | 2,459 | 4505 | 36285 | 4932.5 | 76.08 | 80742.5800 |
| Dylan Windler | BEL | 6 | 6264 | 7392 | 4,822.00 | 3,522.50 | 7248 | 3,404 | 5927.5 | 35970 | 6040 | 75.12 | 80664.6200 |
| Cassius Winston | MSU | 7 | 6930 | 9692 | 4,840.00 | 7,702.50 | 6993 | 3,080 | 4067.5 | 35280 | 1980 | 79.44 | 80643.9400 |
| Jarrett Culver | TTU | 8 | 7203 | 8892 | 4,818.00 | 7,507.50 | 7023 | 1,247 | 2830 | 35145 | 5280 | 68.8 | 80013.8000 |
| Cameron Johnson | UNC | 9 | 4767 | 7184 | 4,782.00 | 6,922.50 | 6978 | 3,510 | 5782.5 | 34125 | 4987.5 | 77.92 | 79116.4200 |
| Brandon Clarke | GU | 10 | 5649 | 6000 | 4,850.00 | 8,212.50 | 7272 | 810 | 6022.5 | 34125 | 5905 | 67.04 | 78913.0400 |
The Top 3
Zion Williamson – perhaps to no surprise, took the first place spot of the ranking system when ranking the 2019 class. He had an excellent freshman year and has demonstrated his ability to score and defend in the NBA. Zion is currently averaging 27 points a game, almost four assists, with a PER of 27.2 he is the clear leader of this class.
Rui Hachimura – came in second on my ranking system. While I am a little surprised that he made it this high, he has had an excellent start to his NBA career. Rui was drafted 9th, but has similar stats to De’Andre Hunter that was drafted 4th. Hunter ended up being ranked at the 16th spot of the ranking system that I have developed.
R.J. Barrett – Conveniently enough ended up in the third spot of my ranking system and also the third spot in the draft. He has had a great start to his NBA career and has helped the Knicks significantly.
Slight Equation Misses
Of course numbers can’t tell the whole story. The current equation tends to over value bigger players in college. They collect a lot of stats that are valuable, but with the elite athletes of the NBA their game does not quite translate as well. In addition, the numbers tend to undervalue players like Tyler Herro. Herro has a very specific skill set that translates well to the NBA, but is not quite as number heavy. Especially when you consider those numbers were getting distributed across an elite Kentucky team that had several first round picks that year.
Dylan Windler – From Belmont had an excellent college career. He shot at a very high clip. He averaged more than ten rebounds a game, but is over valued because of his week strength of schedule. The equation does not quite do enough to account for that. In addition, Dylan Windler is not quite as athletic enough to have his success carry over. He has still had a very solid start to his career and has outplayed many that were drafted before him.
Colby White – White was valued in the equation at number 57. Definitely lower than his effectiveness in the NBA. Colby was drafted at 7 and has been a solid guard for the Bulls the last two years. The equation here misses his athleticism and his height. As at 6-5 guard he can guard multiple positions. He passes well and is a functional shooter. He will continue to be an effective NBA player because he seems to have the right mentality and will continue to develop his game.
2020-2021 INSIGHTS
The rebound from COVID had the basketball world excited to watch this years college games and they definitely did not disappoint. Elite guards highlighted this years class whether it was Baylor shooting 40+% from three as a team or the young guys of Cade Cunningham and Jalen Suggs ready to make an impact in the NBA next year. ESPN’s current NBA draft ranking has Cade Cunningham (1), Evan Mobley (2), Jalen Suggs (3). All freshman with huge upside and hard to argue with! Here is how my top 10 worked out using the same data and equation rankings.
| Player | Team | TOTAL RANK | USAGE WEIGHT | APG WEIGHT | Win Share Weight | STRENGTH WEIGHT | PER WEIGHT | 3% WEIGHT | eFG% WEIGHT | PPG WEIGHT | RBPG WEIGHT | DRTG WEIGHT | TOTAL |
| Ayo Dosunmu | U of I | 1 | 7095 | 9540 | 4,820.00 | 7,265.00 | 6903 | 2,900 | 3782.5 | 36120 | 5355 | 77.2 | 83857.2000 |
| Drew Timme | GU | 2 | 6654 | 7116 | 4,858.00 | 9,120.00 | 7281 | 1,143 | 5985 | 35760 | 5595 | 75.2 | 83587.2000 |
| Luka Garza | UI | 3 | 7233 | 5492 | 4,858.00 | 6,717.50 | 7293 | 3,426 | 5502.5 | 36450 | 5947.5 | 79.84 | 82999.3400 |
| Jared Butler | BU | 4 | 6654 | 9460 | 4,838.00 | 8,467.50 | 6996 | 3,263 | 5085 | 34440 | 2370 | 74.4 | 81647.4000 |
| Corey Kispert | GU | 5 | 5238 | 5816 | 4,856.00 | 9,120.00 | 7035 | 3,426 | 5895 | 35655 | 4390 | 76.72 | 81507.7200 |
| Cade Cunningham | OSU | 6 | 7062 | 8724 | 4,694.00 | 4,737.50 | 6477 | 3,086 | 3307.5 | 36120 | 5295 | 76.48 | 79578.9800 |
| Quentin Grimes | U of H | 7 | 6711 | 6424 | 4,854.00 | 7,187.50 | 6888 | 3,144 | 3662.5 | 35295 | 4955 | 72.16 | 79193.1600 |
| Jalen Suggs | GU | 8 | 6024 | 9392 | 4,780.00 | 9,120.00 | 6696 | 2,001 | 4755 | 31665 | 4670 | 72.64 | 79175.6400 |
| Alex Barcello | BYU | 9 | 5166 | 9292 | 4,820.00 | 5,280.00 | 6939 | 3,561 | 5712.5 | 33900 | 4155 | 77.92 | 78903.4200 |
| Evan Mobley | USC | 10 | 5337 | 7280 | 4,858.00 | 6,895.00 | 7233 | 1,334 | 5492.5 | 34200 | 5947.5 | 72.24 | 78648.7400 |
The Story of the Data – The (Way) Overrated
Ayo Dosunmu is ranked too high on my list, but I think he is currently ranked too low in the projected draft. Currently, on ESPN’s board at number 22. At 6-5 200 pounds he is the same size as Colby White that went 7th just a couple years ago. He shoots the ball at almost 40% from 3 and averages almost 5 assists a game in a solid strength of schedule. While the game against Loyola in the tournament definitely cost him some money I think with the development in the NBA he would be much better prepared and will not see the trapping that we saw in that game.
Luka Garza – Definitely overrated because of his athleticism. Again, the numbers just do not quite have the ability to account for a translation from the NCAA to the elite athleticism of the NBA. Luka Garza will make a team happy in the NBA. He shoots the ball very well and there is always value there. He does not pass the ball remotely well enough to make you feel like you could play through him like Jokic, but I suppose that is where you would hope he can develop in the NBA. The biggest question will be if he can commit to his body, get a little stronger and defend at a high enough efficiency to use him.
Drew Timme Timme was brilliant in the tournament. He had excellent pace, demonstrated his ability to pass and lead a team, but again has the handcuff of not quite fitting in athletically in the NBA. Perhaps he can be a late steal, but he will need to significantly improve his 3 point shooting if he wants to make the impact of his ranking value.
Alex Barcello – Barcello is not a top 10 guy, but he can still make a team happy. He is overvalued because of the league they play in. He is a bit too small and un-athletic. However, he shoots the ball very well and is a solid passer. He can definitely help a team at a specific role, but probably should be an undrafted steal.
The Maybe Not So Overrated
Jared Butler – I love how high Butler ended up in my list. Another big guard that seems to do everything well. While he did not get quite the fanfare of Mitchell as a result of Mitchell’s excellent play in the tournament, that also demonstrates his brilliance. He can still be the best player on the floor without it being obvious. He is currently ranked on ESPN’s list at 23 behind a handful of great guards, but I would not be surprised if he makes a massive impact immediately for whatever team is lucky enough to have him.
Corey Kispert – Played himself into some big money this year. On the ESPN board, he is listed at 12. On mine, he ended up at 5. An elite shooter that is athletic enough and big enough it seems to guard multiple positions means he will fit right into the NBA. He seems more athletic than JJ Redick and Kyle Korver were in college and shoots it at a similar %. I think he will have an immediate positive impact on a team, especially if he goes later in the first round.
The Underrated
Cade Cunningham and Jalen Suggs – These guys are elite. Big guard (especially Cade) that shoot the ball well and are elite passers and floor leaders. They will fit right in. I think Suggs will actually end up having a bigger impact in the NBA – especially if he can improve his shooting percentage, but I expect both to be elite NBA players, as does everyone else.
The Right Spots
Evan Mobley – At 7-0 and ridiculously skilled, it is tough to argue with Evan Mobley’s potential upside. At 10 in my ranking, he is going on most draft boards I have seen 2 or 3. I think that Mobley will have a tough time finding his role in the NBA. He isn’t really a back-to-the-basket big, but he also does not shoot the ball quite well enough to stretch the floor. I am not sure if he can defend the bigs of the NBA because he isn’t yet strong enough and he isn’t an elite passer. It will be interesting to see what he is able to do, but I am not quite as high on him as others are.
The Last Word
This has been an interesting and incredibly fun project. This may be the largest data project I have ever tried to tackle and it was interesting to see how things worked out. Numbers tell an interesting story in basketball, but we still have to trust our eyes. Basketball is too beautiful of a game to be quantified on just a few data points. Next years NBA will definitely be interesting. As always – I would love to hear your thoughts. Email me at [email protected] to chat!